$ASM : Avino Silver & Gold Mines — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au | $24/oz. Ag | $2.72/lb. Cu
ProjectAvino Mine
Mineral Resources50,525,000 AgEq ozs.
Shares Outstanding65,420,000
Market Cap$36,635,200
Average Annual Production2,731,357 AgEq ozs.
Recovery86% (Ag); 67% (Au); 91% (Cu)
LoM15 Years
Payable Product40,970,350 AgEq ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC)$12.06/oz.
Gross Revenue$983,288,400
Transportation, Refining & Insurance Costs($15,623,865)
Gross Income$967,664,535
Total Operating Cost($94,068,000)
Operating Profit$873,596,535
Income Taxes($327,598,700)
Total Capital Costs ($56,920,000)
Net Income$489,077,835
Net Profit Margin50%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)50%
True Value$7.48/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$32,612,403
Future Market Cap$326,124,030
Future Market Cap Growth790%
Target$4.99/sh.

Note: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Investment Case
  • Measured & Indicated Resources have grown by 100% over the last 3 years.
  • Mine Life has effectively doubled.
  • Net Profit Margin and Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) are excellent at $24/oz. Ag.

Gold Data Analytics

As expected, broadly speaking, low Absolute Cost Structures (ACS) are associated with high Future Market Cap Growth (FMG) and substantially higher Net Profit Margins (NPM). One anomaly is Alio Gold, which has a study group-beating Future Market Cap Growth projection in spite of average-to-high ACS, as capital and operating costs are fairly low while share structure is tight.

When selecting stocks, the criteria on which we base overall investment decisions and weightings has grown stricter. We look for companies with True All-in Cost (TAIC)* on the lower end of the curve.

*TAIC, you will recall, includes G&A Expenses, Corporate Taxes & Royalties, Refining & Transportation Costs, Working Capital, and Exploration Budgets, in addition to all capital and operating costs. TAIC is, in our opinion, a much better reflection of a company’s true costs, as it makes an effort to include costs that are often excluded from related non-GAAP.

$ALO : Alio Gold – Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.$1,700/oz.
ProjectFlorida CanyonAna Paula
Mineral Reserves1 Mozs.1 Mozs.
Shares Outstanding84,700,00084,700,000
Market Cap$65,219,000$65,219,000
Average Annual Production74,918 ozs.118,067 AuEq ozs.
Recovery71%85%
LoM9.8 Years7.5 Years
Payable Product734,200 ozs.885,506 AuEq ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,283/oz.$1,195/oz.
Gross Revenue$1,248,140,000$1,505,360,200
Royalty($57,414,440)($30,107,204)
Refining Charges($3,369,978)($3,542,024)
Gross Income$1,187,355,582$1,471,710,972
Total Operating Costs($662,900,000)($445,400,000)
Operating Profit$524,455,582$1,026,310,972
Income Taxes($136,358,451)($384,866,615)
Total Capital Costs($81,900,000)($194,150,000)
Net Income$306,197,131$447,294,357
Net Profit Margin25%30%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)75%70%
Total True Value$8.90/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Total Annual Cash Flow$90,864,641
Total Future Market Cap$908,646,410
Total Future Market Cap Growth1,293%
Target$10.72/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Alio Gold is an outlier: The Future Market Cap Growth projection is higher than for peers in spite of a comparable TAIC, as Total Operating and Capital Costs are relatively low while its Capital Structure is tight.

$GUYFF : Guyana Goldfields — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.
Flagship ProjectAurora
Mineral Reserves2,278,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding173,530,802
Market Cap$130,148,102
Average Annual Production178,819 ozs.
Recovery94.4%
LoM12 Years
Payable Product2,145,827 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,249/oz.
Gross Revenue$3,647,905,900
Guyana NSR($291,832,472)
Transportation & Refining Costs($6,931,021)
Gross Income$3,349,142,407
Total Operating Costs($1,516,043,000)
Operating Profit$1,833,099,407
Income Taxes($504,102,337)
Total Capital Cost($361,196,000)
Net Income$967,801,070
Net Profit Margin27%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)73%
True Value$5.58/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Cash Flow$80,647,369
Future Market Cap$806,473,690
Future Market Cap Growth520%
Target$4.65/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$AAU : Almaden Minerals — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au & $24/oz. Ag
Flagship ProjectIxtaca
Mineral Reserves2,589,245 AuEq ozs.
Shares Outstanding111,700,000
Market Cap$73,722,000
Average Annual Production208,171 AuEq ozs.
Recovery93%
LoM11 Years
Payable Product1,840,664 AuEq ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,255/oz.
Gross Revenue$3,129,128,000
Almadex NSR($62,582,560)
Gross Income$3,066,545,440
Total Operating Costs($1,283,000,000)
Operating Profit$1,783,545,440
Extraordinary Mining Duty($8,917,727)
Special Mining Duty($133,765,908)
Income Tax($535,063,632)
Total Capital Costs($286,000,000)
Net Income$819,798,173
Net Profit Margin26%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)74%
True Value$7.34/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$92,636,095
Future Market Cap$463,180,475
Future Market Cap Growth528%
Target$4.15/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$POTRF : SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. — Updated Economic Analysis

Probable Realized Market Prices$645/t K2SO4 & $147/t H2SO4
Flagship ProjectBlawn Mountain
Fully-Diluted Shares202,510,000
Fully-Diluted Market Cap8,100,400
Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves, 3% Cut-Off153,330,000 tons
Payable Product (LoM)*16,096,051 K2SO4Eq tons
Estimated Payable SOP (LoM)10,603,000 tons
Estimated Payable Sulfuric Acid (LoM)24,135,000 tons
Alumina Resources (M&I)**19,418,000 tons
Average Annual Production351,261 K2SO4Eq tons
LoM46 Years
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $546/t
Gross Revenue$10,381,952,895
Operating Cost ($6,813,000,000)
Royalties (5%)($519,097,645)
Property Taxes (2%)($207,639,058)
Operating Profit$2,842,216,192
Total Capital Costs($537,000,000)
Income Taxes($710,554,048)
Net Income$1,594,662,144
Net Profit Margin15%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)85%
True Value$7.87/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

*This analysis hinges on Payable Product tonnages, as opposed to a sum of Proven & Probable Reserves, including: Direct Feed-to-Mill, Medium-Grade Stockpiles and Low-Grade Stockpiles. Analysts will likely be expecting a much larger number (153.3 Mt) for valuation computations. That number isn’t of interest to us in this analysis, today, as our case is predicated on estimated payable product.

Furthermore, we have elected to utilize K2SO4Eq tons in the stead of deducting sulfuric acid credits from our Direct Operating Cost Matrix. This has the effect of raising our independently-calculated True All-in Cost (TAIC) to $546/t, which is an increase of 159% from Millcreek Mining Group’s Cash Cost number ($211/t).

**Alumina, which trades for about $472/t, is classified as a waste byproduct of production. However, efforts are being made to develop a pilot plant 12 miles away from Blawn Mountain in Milford at the site of Tamra’s shuttered copper flotation mill to determine whether or not Alumina waste can be economically monetized.

Conclusion

The value proposition for SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. remains clear. Additionally, a handful of derisking events have occurred that lend further credence to the SOPerior story. Nevertheless, in spite of the positive news flow, we have chosen to be more conservative with our analysis than in the past.

Net Profit Margins are low and Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) is high. Consequently, we have assigned SOPerior with a conservative 5x Cash Flow Multiple.

Average Annual Cash Flow $35,000,000

At 5x Average Annual Cash Flow, SOPerior could sport a Market Cap of ~$175M, which implies a potential Market Cap Growth of 2,060%.

$LRTNF : Pure Gold Mining — Updated Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.
Flagship ProjectMadsen
Ownership100%
Mineral Resources (Indicated)2,063,000 ozs.
Mineral Reserves1,013,000 ozs.
Fully-Diluted Shares297,000,000
Fully-Diluted Market Cap$121,770,000
Average Annual Production80,833 ozs.
Recovery95.8%
Payable Product970,000 ozs.
LoM12 years
True All-in Cost (TAIC)$1,315/oz.
Gross Revenue$1,649,000,000
Total Direct Operating Costs($586,850,000)
Refining & Transport($1,940,000)
Operating Profit$1,060,210,000
Ontario Mineral Tax (10%)($106,021,000)
Federal Income Tax (15%)($159,031,500)
Total Capital Costs ($422,125,920)
Net Income$373,031,580
Net Profit Margin23%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)77%
True Value$1.26/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$31,120,705
Future Market Cap$311,207,050
Future Market Cap Growth156%
Target$1.05/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$BCEKF : Bear Creek Mining — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-term Price Case$24/oz. Ag | $1.18/lb. Zn | $0.86/lb. Pb
Flagship ProjectCorani
Ownership100%
Mineral Resources (M&I)534,479,167 AgEq ozs.
Mineral Reserves412,340,833 Ag Eq ozs.
Fully-Diluted Shares110,985,814
Fully-Diluted Market Cap$137,622,409
Average Annual Production13,978,703 AgEq ozs.
Recovery69.9% (Ag)
Payable Product251,616,667 AgEq ozs.
LoM18 years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$20.82/oz.
Gross Revenue$6,038,800,000
Total Operating Costs ($3,350,000,000)
Operating Profit$2,688,800,000
Royalty Tax (12%)($322,656,000)
Specialty Tax (IEM, 8.4%)($225,859,200)
Worker’s Participation Tax (8%)($171,222,784)
Income Tax (29.5%)($580,873,295)
Total Capital Costs ($585,000,000)
Net After-Interest Income$803,188,721
Contribution to OSINERGMIN (0.13%) ($1,044,145)
Contribution to OEFA (0.13%) ($1,044,145)
Net Income$801,100,431
Net Profit Margin13%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)87%
True Value$7.22/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$44,452,276
Future Market Cap$444,522,760
Future Market Cap Growth223%
Target$4.01/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$AXU : Alexco Resources — Keno Hill Drilldown

Long-term Price Case$24/oz. Ag | $1,700/oz. Au | $1.18/lb. Zn | $0.86/lb. Pb
Flagship ProjectKeno Hill
Ownership100%
Mineral Resources (Indicated)83,561,000 ozs.
Mineral Reserves30,453,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding117M
Market Cap$161,460,000
Average Annual Production4,142,779 AgEq ozs.
Recovery95.6%
Payable Product33,142,232 AgEq ozs.
LoM8 years
True All-in Cost (TAIC)$17.15/oz.
Gross Revenue$795,413,568
Yukon Mining Royalties($95,449,628)
Net Revenue$699,963,940
NSR($10,499,459)
Total Operating Costs ($274,966,410)
Operating Cash Flow$414,498,071
Total Capital Costs($‭75,656,972)
Yukon Taxes($49,739,769)
Federal Taxes($62,174,711)
Net Income$226,926,619
Net Profit Margin29%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)71%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.4
True Value$1.94/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$28,378,036
Future Market Cap$283,780,360
Future Market Cap Growth110%
Target$2.43/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars