$GLATF : Global Atomic — Independent Economic Assessment

Long-Term Price Case$65/lb. U308
Flagship ProjectDASA
Mineral Resources82M lbs. (1,200 ppm)
Ownership100%
Shares Outstanding144,200,000
Market Cap$53,930,800
Average Annual Production4,864,437
Recovery84.3%
Payable Product69,075,000
LoM14.2 Years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$48.54/lb.
Gross Revenue$4,489,875,000
Total Operating Costs ($24.96/lb.)($1,724,112,000)
Operating Profit (EBITDA)$2,765,763,000
Niger Royalty (12%)($331,891,560)
Income Taxes (30%)($829,728,900)
Total Capital Costs($467,100,000)
Net Income$1,137,042,540
Net Profit Margin25%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)75%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.3
True Value$7.89/sh.
True Value Discount (TVD)88%
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Net Annual Cash Flow (Including Avg. BST, Iskenderun, Turkey Net Annual Cashflow)$86,568,633
Future Market Cap$432,843,165
Future Market Cap Growth703%
Target$3/sh.

Statistical Bias of Common Uranium Stocks

Benchmark World Uranium Index, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.3194)

GoviEx Uranium, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.2679)

Denison Mines, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.0665)

Forsys Metals, 22 November 2019 = BEARISH (-0.6338)

Deep Yellow Ltd., 22 November 2019 = BEARISH (-0.5356)

Fission Uranium, 22 November 2019 = BEARISH (-0.7586)

NexGen Energy, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.3502)

Save for NexGen Energy and Deep Yellow (Sept. ’18), most of the uranium stocks under study have not enjoyed a significant statistical bull run over the last decade. We will be waiting for sustained readings above 0.5 for confirmation of statistically significant bull moves.

An Addition to our Proprietary Weekly Gold Rating

As of 22 November 2019, we will be adding a Statistical Bias reading (BULLISH, BEARISH, NEUTRAL) to our Grasberg-Saville Gold Rating. The simple math on which it is based is inspired by the work of William Feller. The visual display of our quantitative data will look like this:

As usual, our Weekly rating will be released at 4:00 P.M. EST. (HERE)

Note: Our measure of Statistical Bias driven by Feller Data works for all stocks. You are welcome to request a reading from us at any time at no cost. For stocks, we prefer the use of the reading on Monthly* data.

*Weekly data generates actionable intelligence for our actively traded accounts.

Key Gold Indicator Still Mired in Bear Country

The Grasberg-Saville Gold Rating (GSGR) spent its 10th week in bearish territory below 50 with little indication of respite (Actual Reading = 40).

The Grasberg-Saville Weekly Gold Rating measures the following fundamental drivers:

  1. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
  2. KBW Bank Index Inverse Change Ratio
  3. 30-Year/Dollar Ratio
  4. 30s/5s Yield Curve Change Ratio

$TGB : Florence Copper Project Low Level Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$3/lb. Cu
ProjectFlorence Copper Project
Ownership100%
Estimated Indicated Resources2.8B lbs.
Average Annual Production96.8M lbs.
Recovery99.9%
Payable Product2,517,480,000 lbs.
LoM26 Years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$1.98/lb.
Gross Revenue$7,552,440,000
State Royalty (~5%)($377,622,000)
Net Revenue$7,174,818,000
Total Operating Costs ($2,265,732,000)
EBITDA$4,909,086,000
Income Taxes (Effective Rate 24%)($1,178,180,640)
Conoco Inc. Net Returns Royalty (~3%)($147,272,580)
BHP Copper Inc. Royalty (2.5%)($93,272,634)
Total Capital Costs($917,000,000)
Net Income$2,573,360,144
Net Profit Margin34%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)66%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.5
Estimated Average Net Annual Cash Flow Contribution at the Long-term Price Case$98,736,000

The Florence Copper Project will be profitable at today’s Cu price and will prove a veritable cash cow at the long-term price case and above.

Our estimated Total All-in Costs (TAIC) of $1.98/lb. is stellar and will result in a healthy Net Profit Margin of 34%.

Florence is a well-timed Project with a bright future that will generate the cash required to self-fund the advancement of Yellowhead, Aley and Harmony.

Fahy Capital Management initiated a stake in Taseko Mines on 12 November 2019.

$MUX : Los Azules Low Level Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$4/lb. Cu, $1,700/oz. Au, $24/oz. Ag
ProjectLos Azules
Ownership100%
Estimated Indicated Resources11,256,700,000 CuEq lbs.
Average Annual Production276.9M lbs.
Recovery91%
Payable Product10,243,597,000 CuEq lbs. Cu (4.6 Mt CuEq)
LoM37 Years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$2.92/lb.
Gross Revenue$40,974,388,000
Treatment Charge($394,945,445)
Refining Charge($870,705,745)
Royalty($1,229,231,640)
Net Revenue$38,479,505,170
Total Operating Costs ($15,160,523,560)
EBITDA$23,318,981,610
Income Taxes($8,161,643,564)
Total Capital Costs($4,072,000,000)
Net Income$11,085,338,046
Net Profit Margin27%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)73%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.4
Estimated Average Net Annual Cash Flow Contribution at the Long-term Price Cases$299,052,000

Los Azules is a good Project at $4/lb. Cu and higher, with manageable True All-in Costs of $2.92/lb.

I go on for ever…

Rays

Miles Mathis bumps into a handful of recurring numbers in his research: 1, 8, 33, 47.

I don’t think anyone has done this before, so let me try to demystify them. 1 may also be written as ‘I,’ the first person singular subject personal pronoun, (e.g., “I go on for ever.”) , not the numeral.

And 8, 33, and 47 are three ways of saying the same thing: Infinity. Once again, “I go on for ever.”

The numeral 8 may be rotated clockwise or counter-clockwise in order to be transformed into a lemniscate (inifinity symbol). Similarly, a 33 is simply a lemniscate broken into halves. Finally, the safe prime number 47 also represents a lemniscate when the 4 is rotated counter-clockwise and the 7 clockwise and the two numbers joined.

To better understand the employment of the aforementioned numbers as meaningful signifiers, one may start by reading Baron Alfred, Lord Tennyson’s poem, The Brook (1886).

I come from haunts of coot and hern,
   I make a sudden sally
And sparkle out among the fern,
   To bicker down a valley.

By thirty hills I hurry down,
   Or slip between the ridges,
By twenty thorpes, a little town,
   And half a hundred bridges.

Till last by Philip’s farm I flow
   To join the brimming river,
For men may come and men may go,
   But I go on for ever.

I chatter over stony ways,
   In little sharps and trebles,
I bubble into eddying bays,
   I babble on the pebbles.

With many a curve my banks I fret
   By many a field and fallow,
And many a fairy foreland set
   With willow-weed and mallow.

I chatter, chatter, as I flow
   To join the brimming river,
For men may come and men may go,
   But I go on for ever.

I wind about, and in and out,
   With here a blossom sailing,
And here and there a lusty trout,
   And here and there a grayling,

And here and there a foamy flake
   Upon me, as I travel
With many a silvery waterbreak
   Above the golden gravel,

And draw them all along, and flow
   To join the brimming river
For men may come and men may go,
   But I go on for ever.

I steal by lawns and grassy plots,
   I slide by hazel covers;
I move the sweet forget-me-nots
   That grow for happy lovers.

I slip, I slide, I gloom, I glance,
   Among my skimming swallows;
I make the netted sunbeam dance
   Against my sandy shallows.

I murmur under moon and stars
   In brambly wildernesses;
I linger by my shingly bars;
   I loiter round my cresses;

And out again I curve and flow
   To join the brimming river,
For men may come and men may go,
   But I go on for ever.

The Brook, essentially, is blood.

An exclusive club named after the poem was founded in 1903 and is presently situated at 111 East 54th Street in Manhattan, a lovely building designed by Delano & Aldrich. Notable members include John F. Kennedy, Henry Kissinger, John Jacob Astor IV, William K. Vanderbilt, Fred Astaire, Michael Bloomberg, as well as my own cousin, U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom, John Hay Whitney*, who had honorary status, rather than a traditional membership. On closer examination of membership, one is under the distinct impression that the club is a shelter for elite gays, both yesterday and today.

Other Members

Gay Talese, the literary journalist (Read: Fiction) who helped manage the Manson hoax, is a member. The brand of literary journalism that Talese traffics in is now referred to as New Journalism, which is simply another way of saying State-sponsored propaganda.

I can’t confirm this here, but I believe Anthony Lejeune, who died last year, was a member. Pretty sure he was gay. Additionally, he got educated at Merchant Taylor’s, Northwood, which should tell you an awful lot about his pedigree and mission. He may very well be regarded by peers as The Brook’s unofficial biographer. Doubtless he had socked away copious notes on fellow members. I don’t know if OMT status was ever conferred on this Merchant Taylor’s alum, but it’s safe to say other OMTs were awarded entrée.

The Brook — Notice the Arrows/Rays in the Transom. What is a ray? A line with one endpoint — infinite in one direction, like a bloodline, if everything goes according to plan.

*John Hay Whitney bears the name of my 10G grandfather (his 9G), Puritan John Whitney, sometime member of the Worshipful Company of Merchant Taylors**, one of the 12 Great City of London Livery Companies, prior to emigrating to the United States with his wife Elinor in 1635. I’m descended from John’s son Joshua, b. 15 July 1635 in Watertown, Mass., while John Hay is descended from Joshua’s brother Richard, born 12 years earlier in Isleworth, Middlesex, England.

In my research, I have taken the Whitney’s back to my 11G grandfather, Thomas Whitney, a gentleman, who was born c. 1550 in Westminster, England, though he is of unknown parentage. It has been suggested that Thomas is the son of Sir Robert Whitney, Knight, born 1525, Icomb, Gloucestershire, but the suggestion is apocryphal.

**As early as the end of the 17th century, the WCMT had morphed in function from a bona fide guild of tailors with ties to Savile Row into a philanthropic organization. Then, as now, philanthropic organizations were established as money laundering fronts.

Merchant Taylors’ Hall, London

I started this post in order to quickly demystify the signifiers 8, 33 and 47. But what does it all mean? In a word, with a little help from the Fates (or a lot + Money), bloodlines may be made to ‘murmur under moon and stars’ practically forever, at least in name and mandate. This wasn’t the case with John Hay, who did not have offspring of his own. Instead he married the ex-wife of James Roosevelt (son of FDR), Betsey Cushing, and adopted her children Kate and Sara.

But it remains the case with the this descendant of John Whitney…

I chatter, chatter, as I flow
   To join the brimming river,
For men may come and men may go,
   But I go on for ever.

My Descent from John Whitney:

Thomas Whitney, 1550/Mary Bray, 1564 → John Whitney, 1592/Elinor, 1595 → Deacon Joshua Whitney, 1635/Abigail Tarbell → Cornelius Whitney, 1680/Sarah Shepard, 1690 → Matthias Whitney, 1720/Alice Robbins, 1723 → Matthias Whitney, 1746 → Celia Whitney, b. 1785, of Litchfield, CT, my 5G Grandmother, who married James Jackson, 1778, NYC → Willet Jackson, 1812/Betsy Fanning Cummins, 1816 → James Adelbert Jackson, 1846/Alice Rosella Glidden, 1847 → Avis Gertrude Jackson, 1869/John Prescott McCrillis, 1869 → Alice May McCrillis, 1911/Samuel James Merring, 1911 → Linda Ann Merring, 1944/Thomas Walter Fahy, 1943 → Thomas Robert Fahy, 1977/Christina Jeanette Fahy, 1973 → Thomas Robert Fahy II, 2016

The descent from John Whitney is surely interesting, but there are others equally so, including my Glidden line, which finds an historical terminus in Bean MacDhomhnil, c. 1275, Scotland, first chief of Clan MacBean, through Jonathon Glidden’s (b. 1696, Exeter, Rockingham, NH) wife, Margaret Bean, my 7g Granny. I was happy to learn that John Bean, her grandfather and my 9g Grandfather, who was exiled to Exeter by the English, fought for the Royalists against Cromwell’s New Model Army. In other words, he fought for the right side in the English Civil War.

So far, I have been able to trace the Glidden’s back to my 12g Grandfather, John Glidden, b. 1550, Pancras, Bideford, Devon, England.

In future posts, I will be fleshing out my understanding of the Glidden and Whitney lines, as well as the Olmsteads, Jacksons, Sherwoods, Carters, Mays, and others.


Speaking of Miles Mathis, he has been a great inspiration to me. Were it not for him, my passion for genealogy mightn’t have been rekindled. He also gives great cat advice.


† Tennyson mentions ‘Philip’s Farm,’ by which I suggest he is alluding to Metacomet’s final resting place, Misery Swamp, a stone’s throw away from Mount Hope Farm, Bristol, RI, the summer encampment of the Pokanoket Tribe of the Wampanoags. Which is to say, I am of the opinion that The Brook is an oblique retelling of King Philip’s War, the aftermath of which served to anneal the character of the Puritans, hardening their hearts, tempering their spirits and renewing their singular devotion to the cause of the Merchant class.

Joshua Whitney and his son Joshua Whitney Jr. both fought in King Philip’s War and I would assume that had no uncertain impact on the both of them as men, brothers, sons, and fathers.

$SBGL : Sibanye-Stillwater Updated High Level Analysis

5 November 2019 Updated Global Reserve Model
Discounted Global Gold Reserve Value *$3,704,036,400
Discounted Global 4PE Reserve Value **$16,582,170,000
Discounted Global 4PE Reserve Value, Lonmin ***$6,798,330,000
Discounted Global Copper Resource Value ****$7,589,744,040
Discounted Global Uranium Resource Value *****$286,861,500
Aggregate Net Global Reserve Value$34,961,141,940
Estimated Reserve Lifespan
PGM32.5 Years
AU13 Years
2020 Estimated Net Income$1,165,371,398
2020 Estimated Market Cap$11,653,713,980
2020 Projected Market Cap Growth133%
FCM Target Price$17.45/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

*Rustenburg, Kroondal, Mimosa, Rustenburg Tailings, Stillwater, East Boulder

**Beatrix, Cooke, Driefontein, Kloof, WRTRP, DRDGOLD, SA

***Marikana, Tailings

****Altar, Marathon, Rio Grande

*****Beatrix, WRTRP