$THM : Tower Hill Mines — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Cases$1,700 oz. Au
Shares Outstanding187,111,857
Market Cap99,169,284
ProjectLivengood Gold Project
Ownership100%
Reserves9M ozs. Au
Average Annual Production294,100 ozs.
Recovery75.3%
Payable Gold6,763,900 ozs.
LoM23 Years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$1,412/oz.
Gross Revenue$11,498,630,000
Royalty($344,958,900)
Total Operating Costs ($4,586,129,395)
Operating Profit (EBITDA)$6,567,541,705
Income Taxes($1,773,236,260)
Total Capital Costs($2,847,000,000)
Net Income$1,947,305,445
Net Profit Margin17%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)83%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.2
True Value$10.41/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Average Net Annual Cash Flow$84,700,000
Future Market Cap$423,504,000
Future Market Cap Growth327%
Target$2.26/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Net Profit Margin is slim and Absolute Cost Structure is bad but scale works nonetheless for Tower Hill Mines, a fact that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the likes of John Paulson and Electrum. We became shareholders on 31 December 2019.

$POTRF : SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. — Confidence is…

LOW

Firstly, the present informal arrangement that SOPerior has struck with Lippo Group-backed Tamra Mining in Milford is unnecessarily opaque. Secondly, the dearth of updates from the company over the last year regarding pilot plant debt financing is shameful. In light of these factors alone, SOPerior’s recent down-rating is justified.

Getting into bed with the Lippo Group, firstly, is a generally bad idea, as Lippo is known for its rapacious business practices. If financing is secured by SOPerior over the next handful of quarters, one must pray that it isn’t from Lippo. That financing would likely result in a management appointment, total financial control, bankruptcy and the acquisition of Blawn Mountain by Bill Clinton campaign fraudster James Riady’s Lippo China Resources (LCR).

This isn’t to suggest that SOPerior is in any way presently in cahoots with Lippo or any of its affiliates, but Riady is on the prowl in the neighborhood and has already demonstrated suction in Milford and environs.

Regarding SOPerior’s proposed pilot plant: LCR currently owns the plant’s debt, which it bought in 2016 at a hefty 31% discount, and which gave it a 28% equity interest in the Waterloo-owned plant (LCR subsidiary!), which would clearly enable LCR to exert undue and likely detrimental influence on SOPerior. One can surmise that it was the intention of LCR to lure SOPerior into the same trap in which CS Mining found itself ensnared in 2011.

We are of the earnest opinion that it is of paramount importance for SOPerior’s Board to reconsider its proposed partnership with LCR, presently masquerading in Milford as Tamra Mining. We believe there are safer means by which to secure debt financing, and that Blawn Mountain — a true national resource treasure — should remain out of the reach of foreign hands.

$CCJ : Cameco and the Japanese Overhang

We won’t pay up for Cameco, as we still think the downside for the stock is substantial, especially in light of unabated Japanese uranium stockpile sales since August.

While the Japanese flood the market at and below spot, these are the levels we are watching in Cameco:

Weak buying at $7.67, mild support at $6.35 and thin air below to $4.21. We are tentative buyers from $6.35 and committed buyers from $4.21.

Needless to say, this also implies that the bulk of our uranium book will be smashed to smithereens once window dressing season has concluded, which is our secret hope, as we would love to add aggressively 50-75% lower in our holdings. After all, it’s all crap and we love to be alone with the infernal stink of shit companies that are likely to get shittier, poop scoopers that we are.

$MGDPF : Marathon Gold Progress Report Noteworthy Highlight

With an emphasis on rate of return and initial capital cost, the PFS will present a simpler mine plan based on a single stream of ore feeding a conventional mill with no heap leach.

[PRESS RELEASE]

This was a welcome update. We have always had high hopes for Valentine, but they are higher now. Much higher.

See our Independent Economic Analysis of 26 June for more information.

$TMRC : Round Top is a Go!

Texas Mineral Resources to Serve as Chief Player in the Restoration of the Domestic U.S. Rare Earth & Critical Mineral Supply Chain

  • Wheat Ridge, CO Rare Earth and Critical Mineral pilot plant to be operational in 90 days.
  • Wheat Ridge pilot plant feedstock to be sourced from Round Top hREO deposit.
  • CIX-CIC pilot plant to subsequently relocate to Texas in order to ramp to full industrial scale.

For more information about Texas Mineral Resources, please refer to our Independent Economic Analysis.

[PRESS RELEASE]

$TGB : Copper, 2020

See our Ginger Group Forecasts of 27 November for more thoughts on Copper, but here are the updated levels we are watching for 2020. Final numbers will be issued on the 31st of December.

Copper in recent days has made a run to the level at which we stated selling would resume: 2.82. The selling has not thus far proven aggressive, so if buyers prove capable of pushing to 2.90 in 2020, digging their way through congestion from 3.04 to 2.90, moves to 3.26, 3.36 and higher are possible.

We will remain skeptical until we get a breakout above 3.04, as the copper cycle remains down, and bullish trades have been of the counter-trend type. As the cycle is down, this makes copper vulnerable to a general market selloff.

Our exposure to copper is through Solaris and Taseko Mines.