$MGDPF : Marathon Gold Progress Report Noteworthy Highlight

With an emphasis on rate of return and initial capital cost, the PFS will present a simpler mine plan based on a single stream of ore feeding a conventional mill with no heap leach.


This was a welcome update. We have always had high hopes for Valentine, but they are higher now. Much higher.

See our Independent Economic Analysis of 26 June for more information.

$TMRC : Round Top is a Go!

Texas Mineral Resources to Serve as Chief Player in the Restoration of the Domestic U.S. Rare Earth & Critical Mineral Supply Chain

  • Wheat Ridge, CO Rare Earth and Critical Mineral pilot plant to be operational in 90 days.
  • Wheat Ridge pilot plant feedstock to be sourced from Round Top hREO deposit.
  • CIX-CIC pilot plant to subsequently relocate to Texas in order to ramp to full industrial scale.

For more information about Texas Mineral Resources, please refer to our Independent Economic Analysis.


$TGB : Copper, 2020

See our Ginger Group Forecasts of 27 November for more thoughts on Copper, but here are the updated levels we are watching for 2020. Final numbers will be issued on the 31st of December.

Copper in recent days has made a run to the level at which we stated selling would resume: 2.82. The selling has not thus far proven aggressive, so if buyers prove capable of pushing to 2.90 in 2020, digging their way through congestion from 3.04 to 2.90, moves to 3.26, 3.36 and higher are possible.

We will remain skeptical until we get a breakout above 3.04, as the copper cycle remains down, and bullish trades have been of the counter-trend type. As the cycle is down, this makes copper vulnerable to a general market selloff.

Our exposure to copper is through Solaris and Taseko Mines.

There Are Ugly Charts and There’s Fission’s Chart, Which Puts the Rest to Shame

Fission Uranium, one of the doggiest of dogs, has been reduced to a whimper, rounding out the year in spectacularly bad technical shape. Two major levels of support have been violated, and a third may yet be tested.

Fission will likely open 2020 with the bearish bias that marked its 2019 performance. We think a handful of gritty buyers are prepared to step in at 0.12, but sellers will fight back at 0.25. If the sellers prove weak, and if short-sellers do a bit of covering, price could rise to 0.32, a level at which larger buyers lay in wait. Aided by additional short-covering, price could quickly rise as high as 0.44, at which point, all bets are off.

That being said, things have the capacity to turn much uglier for Fission… If buyers don’t turn out at 0.12, the door to 0.05 is opened, and then someone might as well walk up and put a merciful bullet in the stock’s head.

On a brighter note, we are beginning to see pivot compression and cycle truncation, both indicators that signal an approaching bottom.

Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior

We observe cycle death on a regular basis. It often presages a rebirth. But precious few traders have the stomach for it.

Presently, cycle death has occurred in Fission, Denison, Deep Yellow, NexGen and GoviEx. The cycle, interestingly, remains intact for Forsys Metals. We have an idea why Forsys hasn’t uncoupled from its long-standing cycle, but that’s for another day.

What is cycle death?

It is the point at which price becomes unhinged absolutely from previously established long-term cycle patterns. All of the above-mentioned names shared an almost identical cycle length of XX Weeks (The Basis of Our Approach: An Edge on the Margins).

Cycle death struck Fission at its peak in January ’18 but did not become evident until approximately 12 months later. GoviEx uncoupled from its cycle in April of this year. Denison and Deep Yellow decayed out of the cycle following their respective September ’18 peaks and NexGen has decayed out since November ’18.

Why does cycle death happen?

Cycle death is a process — sometimes a long one — caused by capitulation. Structurally, cycle death and price decay are important for the health of any subsequent recovery. Complacent shorts also are known to add during low-volatility cycle death, which leads to ferocious short covering during the early stages of a recovery.

When does cycle re-birth occur?

We like to see pivot compression, low volatility, flattening price curves, and extrapolated price indicators turn upward before we feel confident calling a recovery.


We like cycle death. It’s one of the more reliable indications of true bottoming, which hasn’t been evident until recently in uranium stocks. It is also the point at which we like to add most aggressively.

I’ve been vocal about the dim prospects for uranium stocks and have on several occasions been adamant about lower prices for longer. But, I’m happy to report that I don’t think prices will remain lower for too much longer, as we’re getting the structural prerequisites ticked off for a rally.


$TMRC : Texas Mineral Resources to Submit Proposal for Pilot Plant to U.S. Army

Texas Mineral Resources, up > 50% this morning, is in the process of submitting a proposal to the U.S. Army on the cost of a pilot plant for hREOs.

The Army, through the Defense Production Act (Section 4533(a)(5)) of 8 September 1950, has agreed to fund at least one hREO project, and potentially more.

TMRC’s proposal to the Army is due on December 16.

For more information on Texas Mineral Resources, please refer to our Independent Economic Analysis of 24 June 2019.

NuChem International Catalyst Fund Annual Rebalance