$BKIRF : Black Iron Inc. — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$97.19/dmt
Flagship ProjectShymanivske
Ownership100%
Shares Outstanding186,300,000
Market Cap$11,178,000
Average Annual Production7,065,000 dmt
Recovery98%
Payable Product141.3M dmt
LoM20 Years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$56.26/dmt.
Gross Revenue$13,732,947,000
Ukrainian Federal Government Royalties($863,300,000)
Net Revenue$1,286,9647,000
Total Operating Costs ($4,446,200,000)
Operating Cash Flow (EBITDA)$8,423,447,000
Income Taxes($1,516,220,460)
Total Capital Costs($1,124,200,000)
Net Income$5,783,026,540
Net Profit Margin42%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)58%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.7
True Value$31.04/sh.
True Value Discount (TVD)100%
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Net Annual Cash Flow$289,151,327
Future Market Cap$1,445,756,635
Future Market Cap Growth12,834%
Target$7.76/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Black Iron Inc. enjoys an MTQ Score of 0.7, which places it within the 80th percentile of companies under investigation. In other words, Black Iron’s projected Net Profit Margin potential is high, while its projected Absolute Cost Structure is low, a combination for which Fahy Capital Management looks when placing a prospective investment under the microscope.

MTQ Scores (BARS — Higher is Better) Vs. Absolute Cost Structure (LINE — Lower is Better)
Update, 27 September 2019

Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Andriy Zagorodniuk, has agreed to the transfer of land required for the development of Shymanivske. A Memorandum of Understanding will be signed next month.

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