Denison Mines — An Assumptive Analysis of Book Value at $65/lb U308

Updated 18 June 2019

Long-Term Price Case$65/lb. U308
Flagship ProjectWheeler River
Project Percentage90%
Probable Mineral Reserves (Wheeler River Project)98,460,000 lbs.
Indicated Mineral Resource Estimate (Global)144.1 Mlbs.
Fully-Diluted Shares611,800,000
Fully-Diluted Market Cap$318,136,000
Gross Revenue (LoM)$6,103,581,891
Toll Mining Fees($1,342,791)
Operating Costs($669,157,515)
Operating Costs — Toll Mining Credits$8,728,142
Saskatchewan Revenue Royalties, Surcharges($441,405,242)
Operating Cash Flow (LoM)$5,000,404,485
Capital Costs($759,870,507)
Capital Costs — Project Development($14,323,104)
Saskatchewan Profit Royalties($579,488,916)
Canadian Federal + Provincial Income Taxes($935,626,929)
Net After-Tax Cash Flow (LoM)$2,711,095,029
Projected Book Value per Share$4.43/sh.
PMCV10 (Projected Market Cap Valuation at 10%)$1.53/sh.
Cost to Acquire$2.21/lb.
Total Cost to Build & Operate$23.60/lb.
Total Acquisition Cost$371,967,600 ($0.61/sh.)
Miscellaneous Metrics
Deep Value GradeB
Cost Structure36%
Market Cap Valuation per Resource Lb.$2.21
Share Price Valuation by Resources in the Ground.23 lbs. ($5.75)
Value of Resources (Indicated)$3,516,040,000
Resource Valuation as a Percentage of Market Cap9%
Theoretical Market Cap Valuation$351,604,000
Theoretical Future Market Cap$936,650,000
Theoretical Market Cap Growth194% ($1.53/sh.)

4 replies to “Denison Mines — An Assumptive Analysis of Book Value at $65/lb U308”

  1. Does this analysis / Price target account for any residual value outside of Wheeler + processing for Wheeler (ie 18% stake in Goviex, 10% in Skyharbour, Cash flows from UPC or their AB land collection?) I know it’s relatively little but, I was just curious.

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