GoviEx and Fission — The Case for Outsized Returns (Idle Jottings)

There are mounting indications that the generally accepted high probability of continued losses in the uranium sector has been priced in. Which is to say, the medium- and long-term expected value for staunch bears is now negative, while the medium- and long-term expected value for long-suffering bulls is now positive, although the curia’s perceived probability of gains remains low.

The bears have been correct for a long time although the frequency of their correctness and magnitude of wins have declined, with a handful of exceptions.

GoviEx and Fission are two examples of names that may enjoy upside returns of a magnitude greater than those of peers, as shorts have been more frequently correct though concomitant returns have been somewhat diminished. This is a tell-tale sign of wanton complacency in the aforementioned names.

I want to own names like these whose returns are potentially a full order of magnitude greater than their peers as a result of outcomes that fly in the face of higher probability, albeit moderately-to-extremely priced-in, outcomes.

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