MTQ Scores of Recently Evaluated Stocks

Note: A high score (> 0.5) implies a greater-than-even chance of an enterprise exhibiting both a high Net Profit Margin and low Absolute Cost Structure at the Long-Term Price Case at which it was evaluated.

Our Hypothesis: High MTQ Scores are a reliable determinant of Future Market Cap Growth

The MTQ Score is the 4th pillar of our updated valuation methodology. It will be published in future analyses alongside TAIC, ACS and True Value.

$URG : Ur-Energy — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$65/lb. U308$65/lb. U308
ProjectLost CreekShirley Basin
Mineral Resources13,252,000 lbs.8,816,000 lbs.
Shares Outstanding143,400,000143,400,000
Market Cap$131,928,000$131,928,000
Average Annual Production1M lbs.500,000 lbs.
Recovery92%80%
LoM12 Years14 Years
Payable Product12,191,840 lbs.7,052,800 lbs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $35.61/lb.$38.29/lb.
Gross Revenue$792,469,600$458,432,000
Royalties($31,698,784)($18,337,280)
Gross Income$760,770,816$440,094,720
Total Operating Cost($177,757,027)($102,547,712)
Operating Profit$583,013,789$337,547,008
Wellfield Development($118,504,685)($55,152,896)
Sweetwater Property Tax($1,584,939)
Wyoming Severance Tax($10,226,560)
Carbon County Ad Valorem Tax($16,362,496)
County Property Tax($1,128,448)
Income Taxes($89,244,269)($40,130,432)
Total Capital Costs ($15,400,000)($26,200,000)
Net Income$358,279,896$204,708,672
Net Profit Margin45%45%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)55%59%
True Value$3.92/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$29,390,000$13,355,000
Future Market Cap$427,450,000
Future Market Cap Growth224%
Target$2.98/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

There is a great deal of value in Ur-Energy that hasn’t been baked into price. Were shares to trade between 30-40% lower in a general market decline, we would be buyers.

Rationale

At $65/lb., Ur-Energy will achieve excellent Net Profit Margins and enjoy an Absolute Cost Structure that will elude peers (On its worst day, the company’s TAIC won’t rise much above $36/lb.).

Update, 13 July ’19

We do not presently have exposure to the uranium sector in the U.S., and in light of recent developments, the likelihood of our future participation has dropped. Any consideration of a U.S. issue will necessitate a substantial discount to our estimate of True Value. In the case of Ur-Energy, an additional 20% discount to the 12 July close will be essential before a small initial stake is considered.

More likely, future exposure to the U.S. uranium sector will be gained via exposure to Cameco’s Crow Butte and Smith Ranch-Highland Projects, though at that time, we believe Cameco shares will be available to us up to 30% cheaper following a general market decline.

$EANRF : Eastmain Resources — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au
ProjectEau Claire
Mineral Resources1,001,100 ozs.
Shares Outstanding221,884,037
Market Cap$26,115,751
Average Annual Production79,200 ozs.
Recovery95%
LoM12 Years
Payable Product951,000 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,271/oz.
Gross Revenue$1,616,700,000
Total Operating Cost($612,522,240)
Operating Profit$1,004,177,760
Income Taxes($313,503,994)
Total Capital Costs ($283,000,000)
Net Income$407,673,766
Net Profit Margin25%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)75%
True Value$1.83/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$33,976,800
Future Market Cap$169,884,000
Future Market Cap Growth551%
Target$0.77/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$GVXXF : GoviEx Uranium — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$70/lb. U308 & $12.38/lb. MoO2$70/lb. U308
Flagship ProjectMadaouelaMutanga
Mineral Reserves60,540,000 lbs.30,050,000 lbs. (FCM Estimate)
Shares Outstanding423,222,000423,222,000
Market Cap$50,786,640$50,786,640
Average Annual Production2,690,000 lbs.2,400,613 lbs.
Recovery93.7%88%
LoM21 Years11 Years
Payable Product56,725,980 lbs.26,406,740 lbs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $53.37/lb.$56.43/lb.
Gross Revenue$3,954,300,000$1,848,471,800
Total Operating Costs($1,686,000,000)($960,000,000)
Molybdenum Credit$339,930,406
Royalty($433,798,871)($55,454,154)
Operating Profit$2,174,431,535$833,017,646
Income Taxes($559,139,538)($291,556,176)
Niger Working Interest (10%)($93,929,200)
Niger Carried Interest (10%)($84,536,280)
Total Capital Costs ($676,000,000) ($183,000,000)
Net Income$761,436,720$358,461,470
Net Profit Margin19%19%
Absolute Cost Structure76%81%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.30.2
True Value$2.65/sh.
True Value Discount (TVD)95%
Madaouela & Mutanga
Cash Flow Multiple5x10x
Annual Cash Flow$77,311,018$77,311,018
Future Market Cap$386,555,090$773,110,180
Future Market Cap Growth661%1,422%
Target$0.91/sh. $1.83/sh.
Madaouela
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$44,734,700
Future Market Cap$223,673,500
Future Market Cap Growth340%
Target$0.53/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$EQXFF : Equinox Gold — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au $1,700/oz. Au $1,700/oz. Au
ProjectMesquiteAurizonaCastle Mountain
Mineral Reserves1,004,000 ozs.971,000 ozs. 3,560,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding553,000,000553,000,000 553,000,000
Market Cap$508,760,000$508,760,000 $508,760,000
Average Annual Production97,429 ozs.136,247 ozs.172,727 ozs.
Recovery62.9%91.2%79%
LoM7 Years6.5 Years16.2 Years
Payable Product682,803 ozs.885,608 ozs.2,798,173 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $897/oz.$1,145/oz.$1,233/oz.
Gross Revenue$1,160,765,100$1,505,533,600$4,756,894,100
Royalties($26,697,597)($75,276,680)($204,546,446)
Gross Income$1,134,068,000$1,430,256,920$4,552,347,654
Total Operating Cost($545,696,000)($568,252,500)($1,992,299,176)
Operating Profit$588,372,000$862,004,420$2,560,048,478
Income Taxes($14,120,928)($258,601,326)($763,918,465)
Total Capital Costs ($26,177,000)($111,940,851)($488,700,000)
Net Income$548,074,072$491,462,243$1,307,430,013
Net Profit Margin47%33%27%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)53%67%73%
True Value$4.24/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$234,516,081
Future Market Cap$2,345,160,810
Future Market Cap Growth361%
Target$4.43/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Q2 Updates

In Q2, we reduced our exposure to uranium and increased our exposure to gold, silver and agriculture; our allocations to platinum and rare earths remain unchanged.

At Fahy Capital Management, our investment decisions are based upon quantitative data. Analysis of that data enables us to execute in what we perceive to be a timely and prudent manner. When our data suggest the gap between price and value has closed, we sell. This approach ensures that we do not fall in love with a particular idea or stock. We perceive stocks as inventory and we like to see that inventory get worked off.

Over the course of a 12-month time frame, we typically expect inventory to be reduced by as many as 2 or 3 names, and this has proven a rate that allows us to reinvest and grow.

New Directions

We remain committed to the value proposition, but how we arrive at determinations of value is changing. We have developed new formulas and new ratios that we believe better reveal the merits and shortcomings of businesses under investigation, while conferring to us an edge on the hairy margins.

We are looking forward to sharing some of our results here in our blog. Those results, however, don’t constitute a recommendation to buy or sell; it’s just food-for-thought.

$UUUU : Energy Fuels — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$65/lb. U308 $65/lb. U308
ProjectNichols RanchAlta Mesa
Mineral Resources7,195,000 lbs.3,617,000 lbs.
Shares Outstanding93,500,00093,500,000
Market Cap$287,980,000$287,980,000
Average Annual Production630,000 lbs.575,000 lbs.
LoM10 Years6 Years
Payable Product6,359,000 lbs.3,182,960 lbs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC)$41.36/lb.$38.61/lb.
Gross Revenue$413,335,000$206,892,400
Royalties($33,003,210)($16,519,562)
Gross Income$380,331,790$190,372,838
Total Operating Cost($69,376,690)(34,726,094)
Operating Profit$310,955,100$155,646,744
Income Taxes($26,707,800)($13,368,432)
Bonding(10,683,120)($5,347,373)
Total Capital Costs ($89,725,490)($44,911,566))
Restoration & Reclamation($16,024,680)($8,021,059)
JV Allocation($17,487,250)
Net Income$150,326,760$83,998,314
Net Profit Margin36%41%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)64%59%
True Value$2.51/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$14,893,200$15,174,250
Future Market Cap$300,674,500
Future Market Cap Growth4%
Target$3.22/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Fahy Capital Management has enjoyed a 90% return on Energy Fuels, but we think the stock is overvalued by almost every measure at current levels. We are sellers.

$ASM : Avino Silver & Gold Mines — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au | $24/oz. Ag | $2.72/lb. Cu
ProjectAvino Mine
Mineral Resources50,525,000 AgEq ozs.
Shares Outstanding65,420,000
Market Cap$36,635,200
Average Annual Production2,731,357 AgEq ozs.
Recovery86% (Ag); 67% (Au); 91% (Cu)
LoM15 Years
Payable Product40,970,350 AgEq ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC)$12.06/oz.
Gross Revenue$983,288,400
Transportation, Refining & Insurance Costs($15,623,865)
Gross Income$967,664,535
Total Operating Cost($94,068,000)
Operating Profit$873,596,535
Income Taxes($327,598,700)
Total Capital Costs ($56,920,000)
Net Income$489,077,835
Net Profit Margin50%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)50%
True Value$7.48/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Annual Cash Flow$32,612,403
Future Market Cap$326,124,030
Future Market Cap Growth790%
Target$4.99/sh.

Note: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Investment Case
  • Measured & Indicated Resources have grown by 100% over the last 3 years.
  • Mine Life has effectively doubled.
  • Net Profit Margin and Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) are excellent at $24/oz. Ag.

Gold Data Analytics

As expected, broadly speaking, low Absolute Cost Structures (ACS) are associated with high Future Market Cap Growth (FMG) and substantially higher Net Profit Margins (NPM). One anomaly is Alio Gold, which has a study group-beating Future Market Cap Growth projection in spite of average-to-high ACS, as capital and operating costs are fairly low while share structure is tight.

When selecting stocks, the criteria on which we base overall investment decisions and weightings has grown stricter. We look for companies with True All-in Cost (TAIC)* on the lower end of the curve.

*TAIC, you will recall, includes G&A Expenses, Corporate Taxes & Royalties, Refining & Transportation Costs, Working Capital, and Exploration Budgets, in addition to all capital and operating costs. TAIC is, in our opinion, a much better reflection of a company’s true costs, as it makes an effort to include costs that are often excluded from related non-GAAP.

$MGDPF : Marathon Gold — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.
Flagship ProjectValentine Lake
Mineral Resources2,691,400 ozs.
Shares Outstanding159,431,702
Market Cap$145,082,849
Average Annual Production225,092 ozs.
Recovery97%
LoM12 Years
Payable Product2,701,100 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,383/oz.
Gross Revenue$4,591,870,000
Reid & Keats Royalties($436,227,650)
Gross Income$4,155,642,350
Total Operating Cost($1,643,000,000)
Operating Profit$2,512,642,350
Income Tax($1,130,689,058)
Total Capital Costs ($525,000,000)
Net Income$856,953,292
Net Profit Margin19%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)81%
True Value$5.38/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$71,354,164
Future Market Cap$356,770,820
Future Market Cap Growth146%
Target$2.24/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars