$ALO : Alio Gold – Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.$1,700/oz.
ProjectFlorida CanyonAna Paula
Mineral Reserves1 Mozs.1 Mozs.
Shares Outstanding84,700,00084,700,000
Market Cap$65,219,000$65,219,000
Average Annual Production74,918 ozs.118,067 AuEq ozs.
LoM9.8 Years7.5 Years
Payable Product734,200 ozs.885,506 AuEq ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,283/oz.$1,195/oz.
Gross Revenue$1,248,140,000$1,505,360,200
Refining Charges($3,369,978)($3,542,024)
Gross Income$1,187,355,582$1,471,710,972
Total Operating Costs($662,900,000)($445,400,000)
Operating Profit$524,455,582$1,026,310,972
Income Taxes($136,358,451)($384,866,615)
Total Capital Costs($81,900,000)($194,150,000)
Net Income$306,197,131$447,294,357
Net Profit Margin25%30%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)75%70%
Total True Value$8.90/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Total Annual Cash Flow$90,864,641
Total Future Market Cap$908,646,410
Total Future Market Cap Growth1,293%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Alio Gold is an outlier: The Future Market Cap Growth projection is higher than for peers in spite of a comparable TAIC, as Total Operating and Capital Costs are relatively low while its Capital Structure is tight.

$GUYFF : Guyana Goldfields — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.
Flagship ProjectAurora
Mineral Reserves2,278,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding173,530,802
Market Cap$130,148,102
Average Annual Production178,819 ozs.
LoM12 Years
Payable Product2,145,827 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,249/oz.
Gross Revenue$3,647,905,900
Guyana NSR($291,832,472)
Transportation & Refining Costs($6,931,021)
Gross Income$3,349,142,407
Total Operating Costs($1,516,043,000)
Operating Profit$1,833,099,407
Income Taxes($504,102,337)
Total Capital Cost($361,196,000)
Net Income$967,801,070
Net Profit Margin27%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)73%
True Value$5.58/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Cash Flow$80,647,369
Future Market Cap$806,473,690
Future Market Cap Growth520%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$VGZ : Vista Gold — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au
Flagship ProjectMt. Todd
Mineral Reserves5,848,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding100,500,000
Market Cap$80,400,000
Average Annual Production381,231 ozs.
LoM13 Years
Payable Product4,956,000 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,413/oz.
Gross Revenue$8,425,200,000
Refinery Costs($15,763,000)
JAAC Royalty($64,425,000)
Gross Income$8,345,012,000
Total Operating Costs($3,122,004,000)
Operating Profit$5,223,008,000
NT Royalty($1,044,601,000)
Income Tax($1,566,902,400)
Total Capital Costs($1,191,290,000)
Net Income$1,420,214,600
Net Profit Margin17%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)83%
True Value$14.13/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$109,413,297
Future Market Cap$547,066,485
Future Market Cap Growth580%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$VNNHF : Belo Sun Mining — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au
Flagship ProjectVolta Grande
Mineral Reserves3,788,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding442,631,915
Market Cap$84,100,064
Average Annual Production205,155 ozs.
LoM17.2 Years
Payable Product3,524,100 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $900/oz.
Gross Revenue$5,990,970,000
CFEM Royalty($42,240,000)
Gross Income$5,948,730,000
Total Operating Costs($2,488,640,000)
Operating Profit$3,460,090,000
Income Tax($155,060,400)
Total Capital Costs($486,086,900)
Net Income$2,818,942,700
Net Profit Margin47%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)53%
True Value$6.37/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$164,124,000
Future Market Cap$820,620,000
Future Market Cap Growth876%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$AAU : Almaden Minerals — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz. Au & $24/oz. Ag
Flagship ProjectIxtaca
Mineral Reserves2,589,245 AuEq ozs.
Shares Outstanding111,700,000
Market Cap$73,722,000
Average Annual Production208,171 AuEq ozs.
LoM11 Years
Payable Product1,840,664 AuEq ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,255/oz.
Gross Revenue$3,129,128,000
Almadex NSR($62,582,560)
Gross Income$3,066,545,440
Total Operating Costs($1,283,000,000)
Operating Profit$1,783,545,440
Extraordinary Mining Duty($8,917,727)
Special Mining Duty($133,765,908)
Income Tax($535,063,632)
Total Capital Costs($286,000,000)
Net Income$819,798,173
Net Profit Margin26%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)74%
True Value$7.34/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow$92,636,095
Future Market Cap$463,180,475
Future Market Cap Growth528%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$MISVF : Minco Silver — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-term Price Case$24/oz. Ag
Flagship ProjectFuwan
Mineral Reserves55,300,000 ozs.
Shares Outstanding60,704,748
Market Cap$27,317,137
Average Annual Production5,500,000 ozs.
LoM9.2 Years
Payable Product50,323,000 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $19.80/oz.
Gross Revenue$1,207,752,000
Gross Income$1,159,441,920
Total Operating Costs($313,800,000)
Operating Profit$845,641,920
Total Capital Costs($73,059,822)
Net Income$211,585,336
Net Profit Margin18%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)82%
True Value$1.35/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow (TMRC, 30%)$23,100,000
Future Market Cap$115,500,000
Market Cap Growth323%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$TMRC : Texas Mineral Resources — Updated Economic Analysis

Flagship ProjectRound Top
Mineral Resources (M&I)307,260,007 kg REOs
Shares Outstanding46,686,252
Market Cap$14,005,876
Average Annual Production10,754,100 kg
LoM20 Years
Payable REOs215,082,005 kg
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $21.43/kg.
Gross Revenue$7,764,424,000
Texas State Royalty($487,476,000)
Gross Income$7,276,947,000
Total Operating Costs($2,213,683,000)
Operating Profit$5,063,264,000
Total Capital Costs($845,000,000)
Income Taxes($1,063,285,440)
Net Income$3,154,978,560
Net Profit Margin41%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)39%
True Value (TMRC, 30%)$20.27/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Annual Cash Flow (TMRC, 30%)$47,324,678
Future Market Cap$236,623,392
Market Cap Growth1,589%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$SSPXF : Sandspring Resources — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$1,700/oz.
Flagship ProjectToroparu
Fully-Diluted Shares315,544,790
Fully-Diluted Market Cap$47,331,719
Average Annual Production198,158 AuEq ozs.
LoM24 Years
Payable Product4,755,793 ozs.
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,287/oz.
Gross Revenue$8,084,848,100
Transportation & Insurance($91,881,921)
Treatment Charges($50,458,964)
Refining Charges($24,302,102)
Gross Income$7,915,304,079
Guyana Au Royalty($530,984,288)
Guyana Cu Royalty($9,178,680)
One-Time Surface Owner Royalty($27,060,462)
Net Revenue$7,348,080,649
Total Operating Costs($3,127,124,129)
Operating Profit$4,220,956,520
Income Taxes($1,266,286,956)
Total Capital Costs($992,000,000)
Net Income$1,962,669,564
Net Profit Margin24%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)75%
True Value$6.22/sh.
Cash Flow Multiple5x
Average Annual Cash Flow$81,839,254
Future Market Cap$409,196,270
Future Market Cap Growth765%

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

$POTRF : SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. — Updated Economic Analysis

Probable Realized Market Prices$645/t K2SO4 & $147/t H2SO4
Flagship ProjectBlawn Mountain
Fully-Diluted Shares202,510,000
Fully-Diluted Market Cap8,100,400
Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves, 3% Cut-Off153,330,000 tons
Payable Product (LoM)*16,096,051 K2SO4Eq tons
Estimated Payable SOP (LoM)10,603,000 tons
Estimated Payable Sulfuric Acid (LoM)24,135,000 tons
Alumina Resources (M&I)**19,418,000 tons
Average Annual Production351,261 K2SO4Eq tons
LoM46 Years
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $546/t
Gross Revenue$10,381,952,895
Operating Cost ($6,813,000,000)
Royalties (5%)($519,097,645)
Property Taxes (2%)($207,639,058)
Operating Profit$2,842,216,192
Total Capital Costs($537,000,000)
Income Taxes($710,554,048)
Net Income$1,594,662,144
Net Profit Margin15%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)85%
True Value$7.87/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

*This analysis hinges on Payable Product tonnages, as opposed to a sum of Proven & Probable Reserves, including: Direct Feed-to-Mill, Medium-Grade Stockpiles and Low-Grade Stockpiles. Analysts will likely be expecting a much larger number (153.3 Mt) for valuation computations. That number isn’t of interest to us in this analysis, today, as our case is predicated on estimated payable product.

Furthermore, we have elected to utilize K2SO4Eq tons in the stead of deducting sulfuric acid credits from our Direct Operating Cost Matrix. This has the effect of raising our independently-calculated True All-in Cost (TAIC) to $546/t, which is an increase of 159% from Millcreek Mining Group’s Cash Cost number ($211/t).

**Alumina, which trades for about $472/t, is classified as a waste byproduct of production. However, efforts are being made to develop a pilot plant 12 miles away from Blawn Mountain in Milford at the site of Tamra’s shuttered copper flotation mill to determine whether or not Alumina waste can be economically monetized.


The value proposition for SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. remains clear. Additionally, a handful of derisking events have occurred that lend further credence to the SOPerior story. Nevertheless, in spite of the positive news flow, we have chosen to be more conservative with our analysis than in the past.

Net Profit Margins are low and Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) is high. Consequently, we have assigned SOPerior with a conservative 5x Cash Flow Multiple.

Average Annual Cash Flow $35,000,000

At 5x Average Annual Cash Flow, SOPerior could sport a Market Cap of ~$175M, which implies a potential Market Cap Growth of 2,060%.