$MUX : Los Azules Low Level Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$4/lb. Cu, $1,700/oz. Au, $24/oz. Ag
ProjectLos Azules
Ownership100%
Estimated Indicated Resources11,256,700,000 CuEq lbs.
Average Annual Production276.9M lbs.
Recovery91%
Payable Product10,243,597,000 CuEq lbs. Cu (4.6 Mt CuEq)
LoM37 Years
True All-in Costs (TAIC)$2.92/lb.
Gross Revenue$40,974,388,000
Treatment Charge($394,945,445)
Refining Charge($870,705,745)
Royalty($1,229,231,640)
Net Revenue$38,479,505,170
Total Operating Costs ($15,160,523,560)
EBITDA$23,318,981,610
Income Taxes($8,161,643,564)
Total Capital Costs($4,072,000,000)
Net Income$11,085,338,046
Net Profit Margin27%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)73%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.4
Estimated Average Net Annual Cash Flow Contribution at the Long-term Price Cases$299,052,000

Los Azules is a good Project at $4/lb. Cu and higher, with manageable True All-in Costs of $2.92/lb.

$SBGL : Sibanye-Stillwater Updated High Level Analysis

5 November 2019 Updated Global Reserve Model
Discounted Global Gold Reserve Value *$3,704,036,400
Discounted Global 4PE Reserve Value **$16,582,170,000
Discounted Global 4PE Reserve Value, Lonmin ***$6,798,330,000
Discounted Global Copper Resource Value ****$7,589,744,040
Discounted Global Uranium Resource Value *****$286,861,500
Aggregate Net Global Reserve Value$34,961,141,940
Estimated Reserve Lifespan
PGM32.5 Years
AU13 Years
2020 Estimated Net Income$1,165,371,398
2020 Estimated Market Cap$11,653,713,980
2020 Projected Market Cap Growth133%
FCM Target Price$17.45/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

*Rustenburg, Kroondal, Mimosa, Rustenburg Tailings, Stillwater, East Boulder

**Beatrix, Cooke, Driefontein, Kloof, WRTRP, DRDGOLD, SA

***Marikana, Tailings

****Altar, Marathon, Rio Grande

*****Beatrix, WRTRP

Early Q4 Updates

  1. $IMPUY — We exited Impala Platinum Holdings at our target of $7 for a return of 150%.
  2. $FCUUF — We doubled our stake in Fission Uranium on 22 October.
  3. $AAU — We took advantage of the Ixtaca permitting suspension to aggressively purchase shares on sale at $0.50 on 30 October.
  4. $GUYFF — We took advantage of the Halloween guidance scare to double our stake in Guyana Goldfields.
  5. $TGB — We like Taseko’s pipeline, especially the Florence Copper Project. We also like the way copper is behaving generally. We started to build a stake on 12 November.

“[Copper is] more strategic than cobalt, more strategic than lithium. You can’t replace copper on conductivity. It is a modern metal.”

Mark Bristow