Target Implied Probability Odds Moneyline Payout ($100 Bet) .21 75.2% 1:3 -303 $133 .26 50% 1:1 +100 $200 .34 25% 3:1 +300 $400 .63 16.7% 5:1 +500 $600 .12 41.7% 7:5 +140 $240 .07 33.3% 2:1 +200 $300
Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars
Moneyline bets for OTC stocks? Well, maybe not in the wild. But we place them internally for fun.
Uranium: The Downside, Probabilistically Speaking $POTRF: SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. — 2020 Tote Board »
As of 27 December 2019, our position in
has been liquidated, for a return of 700% Texas Mineral Resources
We have also boosted our defensive cash position by 200% to 14% of the Fund in relative terms.
Powerlifting Update $CCJ : Cameco and the Japanese Overhang »
Texas Mineral Resources to Serve as Chief Player in the Restoration of the Domestic U.S. Rare Earth & Critical Mineral Supply Chain
Wheat Ridge, CO Rare Earth and Critical Mineral pilot plant to be operational in 90 days. Wheat Ridge pilot plant feedstock to be sourced from Round Top hREO deposit. CIX-CIC pilot plant to subsequently relocate to Texas in order to ramp to full industrial scale.
For more information about
, please refer to our Texas Mineral Resources . Independent Economic Analysis
CHART : Cumulative Unexplained Gold Flows $MGDPF : Marathon Gold Progress Report Noteworthy Highlight »
, up > 50% this morning, is in the process of submitting a proposal to the U.S. Army on the cost of a pilot plant for hREOs. Texas Mineral Resources
The Army, through the Defense Production Act (
Section 4533(a)(5)) of 8 September 1950, has agreed to fund at least one hREO project, and potentially more.
TMRC’s proposal to the Army is due on December 16.
For more information on
, please refer to our Independent Economic Analysis of 24 June 2019. Texas Mineral Resources
NuChem International Catalyst Fund Annual Rebalance Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior »
Standard Model 10-Year Contracted Sales Model Long-Term Price Case $3,676/kg Sc2O3 | $0.99/kg TiO2 | $46.55/kg Nb Long-Term Price Case $3,676/kg Sc2O3 | $46.55/kg Nb Project Elk Creek Project Elk Creek Payable Primary Product (Nb) 168,861 tonnes (168,861,000 kg) Payable Primary Product (Nb) 35,180 tonnes (35,180,000 kg) Payable Byproduct Metal (TiO2) 418,841 tonnes (418,841,000 kg) Payable Byproduct Metal (TiO2) 418,841 tonnes (418,841,000 kg) Payable Co-Product Metal (Sc2O3) 3,410 tonnes (3,410,000 kg) Payable Co-Product Metal (Sc2O3) 947 tonnes (947,000 kg) Shares Outstanding 226,666,534 Shares Outstanding 226,666,534 Market Cap $95,993,277 Market Cap $95,993,277 Average Annual Production 7,220 tonnes FeNb (7,220,000 kg) Average Annual Production 10,923,113 kg NbEq Recovery 93.14% Sc2O3 | 40.31% TiO2 | Nb 82.36% Recovery 93.14% Sc2O3 | Nb 82.36% LoM 36 Years Contracted Sales Model Term 10 Years Payable Product (NbEq) 447,052,463 kg NbEq Payable Product (NbEq) 109,231,128 kg NbEq True All-in Cost (TAIC) $24.15/kg True All-in Cost (TAIC) $33.78/kg Gross Revenue $20,810,292,140 Gross Revenue $5,084,709,008 Total Operating Cost ($6,717,578,000) Operating Cost ($1,865,993,888) Operating Margin (EBITDA) $14,092,714,140 Operating Margin (EBITDA) $3,218,715,120 Income Taxes ($2,467,634,246) Income Taxes ($563,597,018) Total Capital Cost ($1,609,397,000) Capital Cost ($1,260,504,167) Cumulative Net Income $10,015,682,894 Cumulative Net Income $1,394,613,935 Net Profit Margin 48% Net Profit Margin 27% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 52% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 72% MTQ Score 0.9 MTQ Score 0.4 True Value $44.19/sh. True Value $6.15/sh. True Value Discount (TVD) 99% True Value Discount (TVD) 93% Cash Flow Multiple 10x Cash Flow Multiple 7.3x Net Annual Cash Flow $161,728,000 Net Annual Cash Flow $139,488,153 Future Market Cap $1,617,280,000 Future Market Cap $1,018,263,517 Future Market Cap Growth 1,585% Future Market Cap Growth 961% Target $7.14/sh. Target $4.49/sh.
Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars
has signed a commercial sales agreement with Traxys North America. Under the agreement, Traxys is obligated to purchase 12 tonnes of Sc over the course of Elk Creek’s first 10 years of production. Additionally, 75% of the Elk Creek Project’s primary product, Ferroniobium (FeNb), is under contract over the first 10 years of production: NioCorp thyssenkrupp (OTC: TYEKF), 50%; Commercial Metals Company, 25%
Fahy Capital Management is not an investor in . We may, however, initiate a position in NioCorp this quarter. thyssenkrupp
Gym, Unreconstructed Fahy Capital Management Q3 Updates »
Flagship Project Round Top Mineral Resources (M&I) 307,260,007 kg REOs Shares Outstanding 46,686,252 Market Cap $14,005,876 Average Annual Production 10,754,100 kg LoM 20 Years Payable REOs 215,082,005 kg True All-in Cost (TAIC) $21.43/kg. Gross Revenue $7,764,424,000 Texas State Royalty ($487,476,000) Gross Income $7,276,947,000 Total Operating Costs ($2,213,683,000) Operating Profit $5,063,264,000 Total Capital Costs ($845,000,000) Income Taxes ($1,063,285,440) Net Income $3,154,978,560 Net Profit Margin 41% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 39% True Value (TMRC, 30%) $20.27/sh. Cash Flow Multiple 5x Annual Cash Flow (TMRC, 30%) $47,324,678 Future Market Cap $236,623,392 Market Cap Growth 1,589% Target $5.07/sh.
Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars
Update, 9 September 2019
Gustavson’s August 2019 revisions to the Round Top PEA had a negligible impact on Fahy Capital Management’s independent analysis. In fact, the updated PEA is more in line with our own assumptions. Consequently, we don’t feel compelled to revise our expectations.
$SSPXD : Gold X Mining Corp. — Independent Economic Analysis $MISVF : Minco Silver — Independent Economic Analysis »
Once approved by the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council (FPISC), Texas Mineral Resources’ Round Top Project will be fast-tracked into construction. The Round Top Project has been classified as “high priority to the nation” and will be granted preference in the licensing process under
Executive Order 13766.
The heap-leachable Round Top Project, which has a low CapEx and OpEx, contains a high percentage of REOs strategically critical to the U.S. defense, clean energy, aerospace, supercomputing, and transportation sectors.
Flagship Project Round Top Mineral Resources (M&I) 307,260,007 kg REOs Shares Outstanding 46,686,252 Market Cap $14,005,876 Average Annual Production 10,754,100 kg LoM 20 Years Payable REOs 215,082,005 kg True All-in Cost (TAIC) $21.43/kg. Gross Revenue $7,764,424,000 Texas State Royalty ($487,476,000) Gross Income $7,276,947,000 Total Operating Costs ($2,213,683,000) Operating Profit $5,063,264,000 Total Capital Costs ($845,000,000) Income Taxes ($1,063,285,440) Net Income $3,154,978,560 Net Profit Margin 41% True Value (TMRC, 30%) $20.27/sh. Cash Flow Multiple 5x Annual Cash Flow (TMRC, 30%) $47,324,678 Future Market Cap $236,623,392 Market Cap Growth 1,589% Target $5.07/sh.
Press Release: TEXAS MINERAL RESOURCES AND JV PARTNER USA RARE EARTH ADVANCE ROUND TOP RARE EARTH PROJECT
Namibia Poised to Become World’s 4th Largest Producer of Uranium, Eclipsing Niger $AUG : Assays of Up to 11 g/t Au and 448 g/t Ag at New Target, Bria »