Like substantially de-risked Prairie Creek, NorZinc’s 1.3B lbs. of ZnEq in Newfoundland is not currently reflected in the company’s market cap, further deepening the special value proposition open to patient, risk-tolerant speculators.
The long-term silver cycle is now up and we think the 16.60s are an ideal point at which to initiate a long position or add to a preexisting one. In fact, we have received our first hard buy signal since May. Consequently, we have increased our exposure to silver by taking stakes in Aurcana and Fortuna, while doubling our stakes in Avino and Endeavour Silver. Meanwhile, the size of our First Majestic, Bear Creek, and Hecla positions remain unchanged.
Silver is likely to open 2020 in price-neutral territory with a bullish bias. Silver should find substantial support at current levels and buying up to 17.97. A move through 17.97 opens the door to 19.41, 21.76, 23.10, and perhaps higher. A failure at current levels opens the door to 15.36, 13.91 and lower.
In Q2, we reduced our exposure to uranium and increased our exposure to gold, silver and agriculture; our allocations to platinum and rare earths remain unchanged.
At Fahy Capital Management, our investment decisions are based upon quantitative data. Analysis of that data enables us to execute in what we perceive to be a timely and prudent manner. When our data suggest the gap between price and value has closed, we sell. This approach ensures that we do not fall in love with a particular idea or stock. We perceive stocks as inventory and we like to see that inventory get worked off.
Over the course of a 12-month time frame, we typically expect inventory to be reduced by as many as 2 or 3 names, and this has proven a rate that allows us to reinvest and grow.
We remain committed to the value proposition, but how we arrive at determinations of value is changing. We have developed new formulas and new ratios that we believe better reveal the merits and shortcomings of businesses under investigation, while conferring to us an edge on the hairy margins.
We are looking forward to sharing some of our results here in our blog. Those results, however, don’t constitute a recommendation to buy or sell; it’s just food-for-thought.