$CPMMF : Crystal Peak Minerals — Independent Economic Analysis

Long-Term Price Case$645/t K2SO4
Flagship ProjectSevier Playa
Ownership100%
Mineral Reserves7,734,000 tonnes
Shares Outstanding348,594,751
Market Cap$40,785,586
Average Annual Production205,700 tonnes
Recovery80%
Payable Product6,171,000 tonnes
LoM30 Years
True All-in Cost (TAIC)$424/t
Gross Revenue$3,980,295,000
Royalties($222,896,520)
Net Revenue$3,757,398,480
Total Operating Costs ($1,372,677,240)
Operating Cash Flow$2,384,721,240
Income Taxes($372,016,513)
Total Capital Costs($646,489,167)
Net Income$1,366,215,560
Net Profit Margin34%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)66%
MTQ Score (Higher is Better)0.5
True Value$3.92/sh.
True Value Discount (TVD)97%
Cash Flow Multiple10x
Net Annual Cash Flow$45,459,700
Future Market Cap$454,597,000
Future Market Cap Growth1,015%
Target$1.30/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

Crystal Peak Minerals is a top-rated stock with an MTQ Score (0.5) that is above average and a Composite Rating of 5 (Scale of 1-5).

Above $600/t K2SO4, Crystal Peak Minerals will enjoy both a Net Profit Margin > 30% and an Absolute Cost Structure below 70%.

MTQ Score (+ Composite Rating [Red Dotted Line]) — Study Group Comparison

$POTRF : SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. — Updated Economic Analysis

Probable Realized Market Prices$645/t K2SO4 & $147/t H2SO4
Flagship ProjectBlawn Mountain
Fully-Diluted Shares202,510,000
Fully-Diluted Market Cap8,100,400
Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves, 3% Cut-Off153,330,000 tons
Payable Product (LoM)*16,096,051 K2SO4Eq tons
Estimated Payable SOP (LoM)10,603,000 tons
Estimated Payable Sulfuric Acid (LoM)24,135,000 tons
Alumina Resources (M&I)**19,418,000 tons
Average Annual Production351,261 K2SO4Eq tons
LoM46 Years
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $546/t
Gross Revenue$10,381,952,895
Operating Cost ($6,813,000,000)
Royalties (5%)($519,097,645)
Property Taxes (2%)($207,639,058)
Operating Profit$2,842,216,192
Total Capital Costs($537,000,000)
Income Taxes($710,554,048)
Net Income$1,594,662,144
Net Profit Margin15%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)85%
True Value$7.87/sh.

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

*This analysis hinges on Payable Product tonnages, as opposed to a sum of Proven & Probable Reserves, including: Direct Feed-to-Mill, Medium-Grade Stockpiles and Low-Grade Stockpiles. Analysts will likely be expecting a much larger number (153.3 Mt) for valuation computations. That number isn’t of interest to us in this analysis, today, as our case is predicated on estimated payable product.

Furthermore, we have elected to utilize K2SO4Eq tons in the stead of deducting sulfuric acid credits from our Direct Operating Cost Matrix. This has the effect of raising our independently-calculated True All-in Cost (TAIC) to $546/t, which is an increase of 159% from Millcreek Mining Group’s Cash Cost number ($211/t).

**Alumina, which trades for about $472/t, is classified as a waste byproduct of production. However, efforts are being made to develop a pilot plant 12 miles away from Blawn Mountain in Milford at the site of Tamra’s shuttered copper flotation mill to determine whether or not Alumina waste can be economically monetized.

Conclusion

The value proposition for SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. remains clear. Additionally, a handful of derisking events have occurred that lend further credence to the SOPerior story. Nevertheless, in spite of the positive news flow, we have chosen to be more conservative with our analysis than in the past.

Net Profit Margins are low and Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) is high. Consequently, we have assigned SOPerior with a conservative 5x Cash Flow Multiple.

Average Annual Cash Flow $35,000,000

At 5x Average Annual Cash Flow, SOPerior could sport a Market Cap of ~$175M, which implies a potential Market Cap Growth of 2,060%.