$TSRMF : Treasury Metals — Independent Economic Analysis (UPDATED)

REVISED (AUSENCO) (20/11/23)CHANGE
Long-Term Price Case$1,950/oz. Au$1,950/oz. Au$1,950/oz. Au
Flagship ProjectGoliathGoliathGoliath
Ownership100%100%
Mineral Resources (Measured & Indicated)2,100,000 ozs.2,138,600 ozs.
Shares Outstanding173,000,000177,200,000↑ 
Market Cap$31,607,100$18,109,840
Average Annual Production109,000 ozs.90,385 ozs.
Recovery92.8%92.8%
Payable Product1,314,976 ozs.1,175,000 ozs.
LoM13 years13 Years
True All-in Cost (TAIC) $1,453/oz.$1,444/oz.
Gross Revenue$2,564,203,200$2,030,153,000
Smelting & Refining($4,546,866)(4,365,920)
Total Operating Costs(1,096,552,517)(1,052,623,418)
EBITDA$1,463,103,817$973,163,662
Royalties($38,648,361)($37,110,000)
Total Capital Costs ($418,311,672) ($401,664,680)
Taxes($352,150,324)($201,000,000)
Net Income$653,993,460$333,388,982
Net Profit Margin26%16%
Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)74%74%
MTQ Score0.40.2
True Value $3.78/sh.$1.88/sh.
True Value Discount95%95%
Cash Flow Multiple10x10x
Average Net Annual Cash Flow50,307,18925,645,306
Future Market Cap503,071,892256,453,060
Future Market Cap Growth1,492%1,316%
Target$2.91/sh.$1.44/sh.
UPDATED 16 JUNE 2023

Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars

2 Comments

Hey Tom,
Do you still consider this estimation to be valid?
I’ve been reading mixed takes about this company, but I value your opinion higher. Thanks!

Thank you for writing! Please see our updated economic analysis for Treasury Metals (11/20/23) — https://www.fahy.co/tsrmf-treasury-metals-updated-economic-analysis/. Since our original analysis, Treasury’s market cap has been cut in half. It has a market cap of ~$18M US. We now also have the benefit of a rigorous PFS from which to draw additional data. Average Annual Production is slightly lower, at ~90,000 ozs., which is the chief determining factor in its lower estimated valuation. True All-in Cost at Goliath remains virtually unchanged at $1,444/oz. We still see spectacular value at Treasury, which sports a True Value Discount of 95%, projected Market Cap Growth of 1,316% and a Target Price of $1.44/sh.

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